Daily Archives: May 24, 2012

Thoughts IV

Mood Music – Pathway to the Moon by Pathfinder Remember Joe Torre? When napping in the dugout and ruining the careers of relievers stopped being a cute, quirky Torre-ism and started to actually bother people, he fell out of favor with the front office. Some early playoff exits may have contributed to that too. Actually, some early playoff exits were why he was eventually not brought back and everyone knew it. Not any real issues with his managerial tendencies (although, as I said, you could find them) or specific decisions, but a general feeling that the team hadn’t been going all the way and should get a new manager. It is often said that managers get too much of the credit for the success of the team and too much of the blame for their failures, but that’s the nature of the business. We hold leaders and figureheads accountable for results that they likely had little to do with. Whatever your thoughts are on Joe Torre the manager, he was probably doing about the same thing in 1998 and in 2007. It’s hard to believe that he suddenly became the problem, but it’s also hard to believe that he was a real driving force behind four championships. He was just the manager. Torre probably had a late hook on his starters, he probably overused some middle relievers, and he probably had his favorites in the clubhouse. When he was replaced, the general feeling was that Joe Girardi could improve on some of those things. Girardi was expected to be a better tactician, but the real question was how he would adapt to being the manager of the New York Yankees . Joe Torre had managed the Yankees for twelve seasons, presided over a dynasty, and built up a ton of goodwill with the fans and the media. What if Girardi couldn’t get out of Torre’s shadow? What if he couldn’t handle the relentless questions, expectations, and national attention that comes along with the job? Joe Torre had a reputation for handling all of this with a calm and collected manner. Joe Girardi had one year of managerial experience that included a falling out with the front office. But, now in his fifth season as manager, can anyone recall Girardi having trouble with the media? Or any division in the clubhouse? Or Girardi ever failing to go to bat for someone on the roster*? Of the original concerns with Girardi taking over for Torre, it’s hard to say that he has done anything but wildly exceeded expectations. *And not just the big names either. It’s easy to show support and confidence in CC Sabathia or Robinson Cano when they have a few bad games. It’s a lot harder to go to bat for Eduardo Nunez and Freddy Garcia when everyone wants them run out of town. I’ve been known to criticize his in-game managing. I wish his decision to pull a starting pitcher didn’t revolve around the one-hundred pitch idea. I wish that he did a better job of mapping the most important outs late in games to the best relievers. I wish that a pitcher pitching well would be left in the game instead of being pulled for a slight matchup advantage. But, in each of those things, there is a sound philosophy of maximizing the quality of the pitching. Starting pitchers are conditioned based on pitch count, and you could reasonably expect for their performance to start to deteriorate and their risk of injury to increase when they get too far beyond a certain number of pitches. You can’t always predict when the most important outs are going to come, and you’d expect guys to pitch better when they can warm up and prepare with a solid idea of when they’re going to be used. Boone Logan and Clay Rapada are much better against lefties. If you have them in your bullpen and want to get some innings and production out of them, use them against lefties. Part of being a manager is making decisions that there is never going to be a consensus about. I’ll happily take a manager who seems to have a logical and consistent approach to his decision making, even if I would sometimes do things a little bit differently. Especially when you consider the fact that he almost always has more information than we do. Maybe Boone Logan threw a really great bullpen session two days ago. Maybe during the last offensive inning, CC looked noticeably tired in the dugout. Maybe their scouting has tipped them off that Matt Wieters is really having trouble hitting sliders from left handers. There are any number of things that make most strategic decisions nuanced judgement calls and not slam dunks with obviously right and obviously wrong answers. As of now, Girardi’s approach to winning games and leading the team have been fine with me. Dusty Baker thinks that walks clog up the bases , so it could always be a lot worse. Continue reading

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Ex-Yankees OF Curtis charged with criminal sexual conduct

WOODLAND, Mich. — Former Yankees outfielder Chad Curtis has been charged with criminal sexual conduct on accusations he inappropriately touched two students at a Michigan high school. Barry County Prosecutor Tom Evans says the charges are based on complaints from two teenage girls. Collins was volunteering at Lakewood High School in… Continue reading

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Yanks prez: Sale story ‘totally fabricated’

Yankees president Randy Levine went on “The Michael Kay Show” Thursday. He had harsh language for the New York Daily News report that the Yankees were thinking about selling. He said there is no truth the story. It was “totally fabricated” by people trying to sell newspapers.    Continue reading

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Yanks Prez says sale story "totally fabricated"

Yankees president Randy Levine went on “The Michael Kay Show” Thursday. He had harsh language for the New York Daily News report that the Yankees were thinking about selling. He said there is no truth the story. It was “totally fabricated” by people trying to sell newspapers.    Continue reading

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Bronx bombers not giving up hope

You had every reason to dismiss Alex Rodriguez’s postgame chest-thumping session on Tuesday night, where, after another brutally unproductive game, he promised he was ready to “go off” and start hitting home runs again. First reaction? Who was kidding whom? A-Rod hadn’t gone deep in 52 at-bats, and with only five home runs on the season, the slugger was turning into the most expensive singles hitter in Yankee history. But wouldn’t you know, Rodriguez made good on that promise only 24 hours later, hitting home runs in his first two at-bats against the Royals. OK, so the damage was done against Will Smith, a 22-year-old rookie making his first-ever start in the big leagues. The lefthander brought with him an unremarkable 91 mph fastball and a case of nerves, making him the perfect target for the overdue Rodriguez. Still, those two blasts — the first to left field, the second to dead-center, over 400 feet away — were powerful reminders of the threat Rodriguez used to represent. Without him as a home-run threat, and with Mark Teixeira in an inexplicable decline, the middle of the Yankees’ lineup has turned into a black hole of automatic outs, especially with runners in scoring position. That, in itself, wouldn’t doom the Bombers, except their pitching has suffered an unforeseen slide toward mediocrity, as well. They’ve dropped from fourth to 10th in the AL in ERA from last year. The rotation, once the Yankees’ signature asset, is now just 11th in the league, and that’s even with two impressive performances in a row from Andy Pettitte. CC Sabathia’s ERA is up nearly a run from last season. Hiroki Kuroda’s 4.56 ERA so far confirms he doesn’t have the arsenal to be a No. 2 starter in the American League. And Ivan Nova’s WHIP has ballooned from last year’s 1.33 to 1.65 — it feels like he’s always on the brink of disaster. Even Phil Hughes’ recent improvement hasn’t addressed his fatal flaw, being unable to put hitters away. In six otherwise strong innings against Kansas City on Tuesday, Hughes was forced to throw 26 extra pitches that were fouled off, including 14 with two strikes. There’s a solution for all this: If the Yankees can’t pitch with, say, the Rays or the Rangers, they can at least power their way to October. That was the premise of signing Rodriguez to that 10-year, $320 million contract after the 2007 season. A-Rod was coming off an MVP campaign — 54 HRs, 156 RBI — with no reason to believe he’d decline any time soon. Yankee ownership envisioned A-Rod’s golden age lasting into his 40s, long enough to break Barry Bonds’ HR-record in pinstripes. Rodriguez wasn’t supposed to get old, or break down — he wasn’t supposed to stop hitting home runs so quickly. But until Wednesday, Rodriguez was a billboard of decline: He’s lifting fewer fly balls than last year, he’s hitting ground balls at the highest rate of his career. Not only has Rodriguez slumped, he’s taken down the entire offense with him. In the last 10 years, the Yankees finished in the top-2 in runs scored eight times. This year they’ve dropped to fifth, as everyone is over-swinging. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Bombers rank 26th in the majors in hitting singles with runners in scoring position. At one point this week, the Bombers were 0-for-16 with RISP, with A-Rod mired in his own 0-for-11 drought. So the question is: What did Wednesday’s home runs mean? A-Rod is, after all, closing in on his 37th birthday, and who knows how fast his body is breaking down in the post-steroids phase of his career. We’ll need a greater sample size to quantify what Rodriguez has left, but he’s nevertheless sure Wednesday’s game was a sea-change moment. “I said it because I’ve meant it,” A-Rod said of his prediction. “I was working on some things and I said it with conviction. It’s good to back it up.” It was his Rodriguez’s first multi-home run game since May 17, 2011, which means it’s either the law of averages evening things out, or else Rodriguez finally cracked the code on his slump. You don’t have to ask which option the front office is hoping for, because there is no Plan B for Rodriguez’s failure or Teixeira’s invisibility. The Yankees are locked into this roster. No one’s getting fired — and that includes Joe Girardi or Brian Cashman. There are no can’t-miss prospects waiting to be called up. There’ll be no blockbuster trades, either, certainly none that will require the Yankees to part with younger players or increase payroll. The Yankees are banking on veterans like Rodriguez, Teixeira, Pettitte, Derek Jeter and Raul Ibanez because of their history of success. The surcharge, however, is the Bombers have the oldest roster in the majors, with the average age of 31.5 years. That’s a trade-off Cashman can accept. “I keep hearing that [the Yanks are too old] every [bleeping] year,” he said this week. “It’s dejà vu. It has come upon us so many times. We are bad right now and we will be better.” Just to emphasize that point, Cashman addressed the team in a closed-door meeting before Tuesday’s game. It was a calculated move for a GM who generally refrains from interacting with players. But Cashman wanted the Yankees to know he trusts them, even as the landscape in the AL East has changed so radically. Gone are the days when the Yankees could devour the Blue Jays and Orioles the way larger fish eat plankton. It’s no longer a guarantee the O’s ineptitude will enrich the Yankees by 12-14 wins. The division is being so fiercely contested the Bombers were in danger of falling into last place during the homestand. That’s why Rodriguez’s performance against the Royals had the Yankee family hoping for a more prosperous summer. Together, they’re asking: Was it the seminal moment in the 2012 season or just an illusion? Continue reading

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The Tune Was An Old Rebel One: Has Matt Cain Broken xFIP?

Matt Cain has come up a bit recently as a player who has supposedly “broken” xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) by being able to keep an inordinate number of flyballs in the park. Now, for those who don’t know, xFIP is essentially a version of FIP (a statistic that estimates luck- and park-neutral ERA based on K-, BB-, and HR-rates on a per-inning basis) that normalizes HR/flyball-rates to league-average based on the underlying assumption that pitchers can’t really control whether or not flyballs become homeruns. So, first and foremost, it’s important to keep in mind that Matt Cain is a post hoc example, which essentially means that we’re picking him out after he’s done it. If you look at enough players someone is going to deviate from the norm, simply by random chance. However, Cain isn’t entirely post hoc, people have been talking about this possibly being a skill for him for quite some time now. For that reason, we’ll ignore the post hoc aspect of this for now and look at how Cain has kept flyballs in the park. Well, first, it should be noted that Cain makes roughly half of his starts at home — AT&T park in San Francisco is notable as a stadium that greatly reduces the likelihood of flyballs becoming homeruns (its MLB ranks for HR park factor between 2007 and 2012: 24, 13, 20, 20, 30, 30). So, the fact that he’s playing a pitcher-friendly park already makes flyballs less likely to become homeruns. However, even more interesting, is which homeruns AT&T actually suppresses . Homeruns to leftfield (generally hit by righthanded batters) are not actually being suppressed much at all but homeruns to right are suppressed to the extreme. Naturally, this means that it’s going to be much more difficult for lefthanded batters to hit homeruns at AT&T than righthanded batters. Since 2007, just 7.7% of flyballs hit by lefthanded batters have left AT&T park. By contrast, righthanded HR/fly-rate is 8.4%. The same HR/fly trends emerge when we look at Cain’s own career splits (vs. righties: 6.8%, vs. lefties: 6.3%). Now, this is actually quite important because teams stack their lineups against Cain with lefties. Roughly half of all batters Cain has faced are lefties (50.0%). Compare that with San Francisco’s staff as a whole in 2011 (just 37%) and it makes sense that the park actually helps Cain even more than park factors, which estimate how much it helps the staff as an whole, would indicate. That’s not all, however. Cain’s division rivals are not exactly known for their bats. Take a gander at the quality of the offence in Cain’s division since 2007: Team HR/fly (%) wRC+ Padres 8.5 92 Dodgers 8.6 94 Diamondbacks 10.3 90 Rockies 10.9 95 Two of Cain’s road parks are hitter’s parks (Arizona and Colorado) but the effects of those hitter’s parks are largely offset by there being two pitcher’s parks (San Diego and Los Angeles). More importantly, the quality of the offences in Cain’s division are all quite a bit below average — in spite of the fact that they play half their games in hitter-friendly parks, their HR/fly-rates are still no better than league average. Compare this to the AL East over the same time period, for example: Team HR/fly (%) wRC+ Yankees 12.9 114 Red Sox 10.7 111 Rays 11.0 106 Orioles 9.6 95 Blue Jays 10.5 99 The Orioles, easily the worst offensive team in the AL East over the past five years have been as good (in a park-neutral context) as the best offensive team in the NL West. The Jays, an average offensive team for the league and well below-average for the division over this period, would have been the best offensive team in the NL West by a considerable margin. What this means is that, even though he has to pitch in Arizona and Colorado, their offences are weak enough that they’re essentially league average offences, even at home. And when they come to San Francisco, they’re going to be far worse. Suffice it to say that Cain is facing inferior competition. Thus, I think Cain’s “true” HR/fly-rate is likely quite a bit higher than what we’ve seen. On the road, Cain’s career HR/fly-rate is 7.0%. Given that his park suppresses lefthanded batters as much as any park in the game and, on top of that, he’s facing some of the weakest offences MLB has to offer, it seems like his HR/fly-rate should be a quite a bit higher than that, even. Now, all this is not to say that Matt Cain is not a very good pitcher. In fact, it doesn’t even mean that Cain does not possess some skill to keep flyballs in the park; on the contrary, Cain is absolutely a very good pitcher and, even accounting for these factors, it seems like he has been somewhat more successful than a league average pitcher would have been. So it is true that xFIP may consistently underrate Cain’s true abilities, but, considering that his “true” HR/fly-rate should more likely be somewhere in the 7-8% range, it seems like he’s hardly “broken” it. Especially considering he’s a post hoc example. Either way, Brian Sabean was once interested in trading Cain for a young outfielder with decent power potential but no plate discipline . . . any chance you think he might take a flier on Eric Thames ? Today’s post title comes from a The Clash’s great “Rebel Waltz” Continue reading

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Yankees Links And News

Happy Thursday, everyone! The Yankees have an off night, so an open thread will be posted tonight by Andrew. Until then, here are some links for you to spend some time reading. Rob Neyer reviewed the New Yankee Stadium, and called it “meh.” From Neyer: Which reminds of something else that’s disappointing … The New York Yankees are supposed to epitomize class . But with the arguable exception of Derek Jeter’s appearances still announced by the (now) disembodied voice of Bob Sheppard, there is almost nothing classy about Yankee Stadium. The Yankees could have afforded to eschew advertisements on the outfield walls, but they didn’t. They could have jettisoned “YMCA”, but they didn’t. They could have built something in the grand tradition of the Empire State Building or the Chrysler Building or the Brooklyn Bridge or any of a dozen other New York City landmarks, but they didn’t. Yankee Stadium’s like a school in summer. Thoughts? This tweet should make you laugh. Ed Valentine takes a look at 5 potential Yankees owners if the Steinbrenners do sell the team (which they likely won’t) and the year so far in the MLB. Now, I have a couple of questions. Do you like the news posts, or do you prefer scattered fanshots? I’d like to find a slogan that I can keep on the site for a long time, so please vote in the poll. Poll What should the Pinstripe Alley slogan be? (Voting ends Monday 12 AM) go yankees go you are #1 Where Freddy Garcia makes David Phelps look like Cy Young Centaur Powered Through 2017 Land of the mops, home of the binder Other   52 votes | Results Continue reading

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Progress Report: Yanks first-quarter grades

Al Bello/Getty ImagesThe final grades won’t come until October, but several Yankees deserve a Needs Improvement.Overall, the Yankees are 23-21, so at best you can probably give them a grade of C, maybe even a D. But let’s look at the individual marks and see who is carrying their end of the $200 million bargain — and who is not. .mod-content { padding: 7px; } .mod-inline .mod-content h4 { margin: 0px 0px 7px 0px; } .mod-content p { margin: 0px 0px 0px 0px; } . Continue reading

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New York Yankees say they’re not for sale

The New York Yankees say they aren’t for sale. The Daily News reported Thursday that there were rumors in Major League Baseball and New York banking circles that the Steinbrenner family ”is exploring the possibility of selling the Yankees.” Not so, says Yankees managing partner Hal Steinbrenner. ”It is pure fiction,” he said. ”The Yankees are not for sale. I expect that the Yankees will be in my family for many years to come.” Hal’s father, George Steinbrenner, headed a group that bought the Yankees from CBS Inc. in 1973 for about $8.7 million net. The elder Steinbrenner died two years ago. Yankees president Randy Levine also says the team is not for sale and that, ”we have not told anyone or indicated to anyone that it’s for sale.” Franchise values have been given new focus since the Los Angeles Dodgers sold on May 1 for $2 billion. In order to disclose financial records to potential investors, the Yankees would need to notify the commissioner’s office. ”Major League Baseball has received no indications from any representatives of the New York Yankees or anyone else that the club is for sale,” the commissioner’s office said in a statement. Continue reading

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2012 Yankees: Five reasons to believe

AP Photo/LM OteroFear not, Yankees fans: CC Sabathia is your most important player, and he’s still a stud.To combat all the questions about their slow start, the Yankees’ mantra in the clubhouse is, “Look at the back of our baseball cards.” We have — and that is probably the best reason to believe that the Yankees have better days ahead. They have done it before. So let’s look at five reasons to believe in the Yankees. (Click here for five reasons to panic. Continue reading

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